The World Meteorological Organization announced on Thursday that the El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to strengthen through 2027, potentially becoming the most intense on record, leading to an increased likelihood of extreme weather events in the coming year. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that if the current trend continues, it could surpass any previous El Niño events monitored over the past four decades.
The UN weather agency’s forecasts indicate a nearly 100% certainty of El Niño persisting until February 2027, driven by exceptionally warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This level of confidence in the forecast is unprecedented, according to the WMO. A powerful El Niño can significantly impact global rainfall and temperature patterns, potentially fueling events like typhoons.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the unprecedented scale of the current El Niño, highlighting the undeniable scientific evidence that the planet is experiencing uncharted warming waters. El Niño occurs naturally every two to seven years, characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakened trade winds, lasting up to 12 months and causing extreme weather patterns across various regions.
The ongoing El Niño event has already affected agricultural production in tropical regions, leading to a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO anticipates the peak of El Niño to occur later this year, with lasting effects expected into 2027, resulting in elevated global temperatures. In response, the WMO is enhancing preparedness and early warning systems to mitigate potential impacts.
Saulo reiterated the WMO’s commitment to collaborating with partners within the United Nations and humanitarian sectors to provide essential climate intelligence for disaster management and climate-sensitive industries such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.