A recent peer-reviewed study highlights a lesser-known threat to cocoa production amidst the surge in cocoa prices. While heat and drought have been the primary climate concerns, research led by environmental fellow Anna Lea Albright from Harvard University reveals that heavy rainfall poses the most significant weather risk to cocoa cultivation.
Cocoa prices have skyrocketed in recent years, with a tonne now priced at around $6,000 US, compared to the previous trading range of $2,000 to $3,000 US per tonne since 2014. The surge in prices, exceeding $12,000 US in 2024, was triggered by various factors, including heavy flooding in West Africa, the world’s largest cocoa-growing region supported by over two million farmers.
Leslie Agyare, founder of Three Mountains Cocoa in Ghana, expressed the challenges faced by farmers due to excessive rainfall hindering harvesting efforts. Despite the looming threat of extreme rainfall events worsening due to climate change, the study suggests potential strategies to mitigate the impact on cocoa production that billions enjoy.
The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, focused on Ghana, the second-largest cocoa producer globally. It identified extreme rainfall during flowering as a significant factor limiting yields, more so than temperature variations. Excessive rain can damage the delicate cocoa tree flowers and young pods, leading to lower yields and increased fungal infections like black pod disease.
The research also highlighted a clear climate signal indicating that warmer air holds more moisture, intensifying heavy rain events during the wet season. While El Niño typically reduces extreme rain risks in West Africa but raises drought chances, the region currently faces a dry period when rain is desperately needed.
Apart from climatic risks, the study also emphasized non-climactic threats such as aging trees and illegal mining, identified by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization as additional challenges to cocoa production sustainability. Experts suggest interventions involving fungicides and improved drainage systems to combat fungal diseases spread by heavy rains.
The impact of these climate shocks on cocoa farming in West Africa may lead to a decline in smallholder farmers, making the profession less appealing. The rising cocoa prices have prompted innovations in cocoa-free chocolate alternatives, with major companies like Nestlé venturing into partnerships with cocoa-free chocolate startups to ensure a more resilient supply chain.
Despite the historical underpricing of chocolate, particularly the type distributed during Halloween, experts warn that the burden has fallen on smallholder farmers in West Africa. The future of cocoa production faces uncertainties as climate change exacerbates challenges, potentially reshaping the chocolate industry landscape.