Health officials in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are utilizing mobile-phone data to track population movements and predict potential areas for the spread of the Ebola virus. This innovative method, a first in an Ebola response, is crucial in containing the rapidly escalating outbreak, labeled by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the most expansive in history. The outbreak has affected six provinces, infecting over 6,250 individuals and causing 3,039 deaths since its declaration on May 15.
The current Ebola outbreak, the 17th in Congo, is attributed to the Bundibugyo strain, lacking approved vaccines or treatments. Responders are now focusing on preempting future cases by analyzing population movements to allocate surveillance and response resources effectively.
Olivier Le Polain, in charge of epidemiology and analytics at the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, emphasized the significance of understanding population movements in outbreak scenarios. Conventional risk assessments concentrate on outbreak epicenters but may fail to consider distant yet interconnected areas. By evaluating mobility data, responders can pinpoint potential risks in geographically separate regions with high travel connectivity.
The data analysis, conducted by the Swedish non-profit organization Flowminder, involves anonymized mobile phone records reflecting user connections to telecommunication networks. These records, provided by Congo’s leading operator, Vodacom, enable researchers to estimate travel patterns and, consequently, the potential movement of infectious individuals.
Flowminder’s initial analysis, released in early June, focused on outbreak origins in Bunia, Mongbwalu, and Rwampara, tracking travel patterns from April 3 to April 23. The study revealed significant flows to neighboring areas in Ituri and North Kivu provinces, where subsequent confirmed Ebola cases emerged. As the outbreak expanded, Flowminder extended its analysis to other affected regions, identifying potential high-traffic destinations like Kisangani, a crucial transport hub linking eastern and western Congo.
Recent studies highlighted connections between Kisangani, Kinshasa, and regions along the Congo River, emphasizing the risk of spread to Congo’s capital and neighboring countries. The WHO, citing modeling exercises, warned of a probable 70% chance of detecting cases in Kinshasa by September’s end.
Despite its insights, the current analysis is limited to data from Congolese mobile networks, providing an incomplete picture of international movements. Efforts are underway to broaden coverage by collaborating with additional telecom operators to enhance data accuracy and coverage.