A recent study reveals that the Saskatchewan government’s choice to renovate its coal-powered plants may incur expenses of up to $46.4 billion within the next 20 years. This amount significantly surpasses the $26 billion estimated in leaked internal SaskPower documents over a 25-year period. Brett Dolter, an associate professor at the University of Regina specializing in economics, conducted the analysis to assess the costs associated with Saskatchewan’s strategy of utilizing coal-fired plants as a transitional phase towards nuclear power and the development of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
Dolter’s research indicates that this plan will be more costly and environmentally harmful compared to retiring the coal plants and constructing a mix of natural gas facilities and renewable energy systems, which was the province’s original proposal before the policy reversal in early 2025. He emphasized the potential savings, emissions reduction, and individual cost benefits of an alternative approach that could save each person an average of over $800 annually.
Drawing from leaked SaskPower documents disclosed by the Saskatchewan NDP, data submitted to the province’s rate review panel, and certain assumptions due to the lack of transparency regarding the government’s internal analysis, Dolter underscored the financial advantages when factoring in carbon pricing. Without carbon pricing on high-emission sources, the projected cost of persisting with coal would amount to $30.2 billion over the next two decades.
The total expenditure rises to $46.4 billion when incorporating carbon pricing, as Dolter calculated using Ottawa’s memorandum of understanding with Alberta earlier in the year. He pointed out that deploying carbon pricing significantly reduces costs, underscoring the financial implications of coal plant pollution.
While acknowledging the clarity of the financial implications of Saskatchewan’s current trajectory, Dolter refrained from speculating on the government’s rationale behind its decision-making process. Requests for a response from the provincial government regarding Dolter’s analysis were met with a statement emphasizing the importance of reliable and affordable electricity as the cornerstone of Saskatchewan’s ongoing development.
The government’s stance reflects the perspective expressed by Crown Investments Corporation Minister Jeremy Harrison, advocating for an “all-of-the-above” strategy to fulfill the province’s energy requirements by responsibly utilizing existing resources while transitioning towards nuclear energy powered by Saskatchewan’s uranium deposits.
Furthermore, Dolter highlighted the potential financial and legal risks associated with Saskatchewan’s divergence from federal clean electricity regulations and coal-fired power mandates, potentially subjecting the province to legal challenges. Compliance with constitutional carbon pricing regulations was emphasized as crucial to avoid significant financial losses in the event of legal disputes over the operation of refurbished coal plants.