Canadian exports to China surged by 30% in the first half of 2026, driven by a 3.6% overall increase in trade compared to the previous year, as per data analyzed by researchers from Statistics Canada. The findings, detailed in a recent report by the Canada China Business Council and the University of Alberta’s China Institute, signify a reinvigoration of economic ties between the two nations amid Canada’s efforts to diversify its trade relationships beyond the U.S.
In the initial half of 2026, the total trade volume between Canada and China reached $66.6 billion, marking a 3.6% uptick, while exports soared by 30% to $21.74 billion year-on-year. Key drivers of this growth were energy and minerals, accounting for 58.4% of all Canadian exports to China during this period, with energy products, including crude oil and liquefied propane, experiencing a substantial 81.8% surge. Additionally, exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals, such as copper ore, climbed by 29%.
Bijan Ahmadi, the executive director of the Canada China Business Council, described the record-breaking first-half exports to China as a significant milestone. The improved trade performance between the two nations comes amidst a thaw in relations following years of strained ties, particularly stemming from the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in 2018.
Notably, the Trans Mountain Pipeline’s near-full capacity in June has significantly expanded Asia’s access to Western Canadian crude oil, further boosted by disruptions in oil supply due to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. These factors, coupled with China’s robust purchasing power, have contributed to the notable surge in Canadian exports to the Asian giant.
The trade truce between Canada and China in the first half of 2026, highlighted by a deal between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping, has facilitated increased market access for Canadian agricultural products in exchange for tariff suspensions and reductions. This agreement has already led to a surge in canola seed prices, benefiting Canadian farmers.
While Canadian exports to China have demonstrated substantial growth, the import side has seen a 5.8% decline year-over-year, resulting in a 25% reduction in the trade deficit. The shift in import patterns is partly attributed to the relocation of certain manufacturing activities outside of China, impacting the import landscape.
Looking ahead, stakeholders are optimistic about further enhancing trade ties with China and the broader Asia-Pacific region, emphasizing the need to diversify trade partners and fortify economic engagements beyond traditional markets. The goal of increasing exports to China by 50% by 2030 seems well within reach, with the current trajectory indicating potential surpassing of this target.