Australian scientists have developed a pioneering online tool that can assess the environmental impact of fossil fuel projects, with a Canadian offshore oil venture serving as a test case. The newly introduced Carbon Impacts Tracer can predict the effects of proposed mines, offshore oil rigs, and other energy undertakings on global warming, glacier melt, and human fatalities.
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate science professor at the Australian National University, mentioned during a virtual press briefing that the tool links emissions from fossil fuel projects to their contribution to global warming and subsequent specific impacts. By utilizing carbon dioxide emission data from project proposals, the tool calculates the projected increase in global temperature, drawing from established scientific research to determine real-world consequences like coral reef depletion, reduced food production, and job losses.
The online platform was launched featuring analyses of various projects, including five in Australia, one in the U.K., and the proposed Bay du Nord offshore oil project in Canada, led by Equinor. The tool estimates that CO2 emissions from the Bay du Nord project could reach 188 megatonnes over two decades, resulting in a minute temperature rise globally.
Moreover, the tracer suggests that these emissions could expose over 111,000 people to extreme heat and lead to 25 heat-related deaths in Europe. It also forecasts potential glacier loss, sea level rise, job cuts due to pollution, and a rise in extreme poverty for about 9,800 individuals.
While Equinor did not offer immediate comments, Joel Finnis, a climatologist at Memorial University, emphasized the significance of the tracer in consolidating research findings for better understanding by the general public. The tool challenges proponent arguments favoring new oil projects by highlighting the severe consequences such endeavors can have on lives, finances, and the environment.
Maria Nawaz, from the University of New South Wales, emphasized the tool’s importance in connecting fossil fuel projects to tangible impacts, countering claims that individual projects have minimal emissions. She anticipates the tool being utilized by governments, regulators, and the public to scrutinize proposed projects, potentially influencing climate litigation and aiding in risk assessment and economic projections.
The Carbon Impacts Tracer currently focuses on prospective projects, with plans to incorporate more developments as data becomes accessible.