A recent study has revealed that the impact of wildfires and permafrost thaw on climate change is more severe than previously thought. These climate feedback loops, where the effects of climate change lead to increased carbon emissions, could result in 20 to 30 per cent more warming than current estimates for this century.
The study, conducted by researchers from institutions in the United States such as Stanford University, Environmental Defense Fund, and Spark Climate Solutions, suggests that global climate models may be underestimating the influence of these feedback loops. According to Ben Poulter, a co-author of the study, the remaining carbon budget may be smaller than believed, emphasizing the urgency of addressing these additional emissions.
Published in Environmental Research Letters, the study highlights the significance of these warming-induced emissions, particularly in countries like Canada, which contribute significantly to these emissions. Canada, being a large northern country, is experiencing accelerated warming, as indicated by the recent Canada’s Changing Climate assessment projecting up to five degrees of warming by the end of the century.
Notably, the study underscores that the impacts of climate change in Canada will not stay localized but will have global implications. For instance, during Canada’s record-breaking wildfire season in 2023, wildfires released a billion tonnes of carbon, ranking them among the top emitters globally. Researchers emphasize the need for focused studies to monitor and address the feedback loops occurring in Canada and other regions.
The thawing of permafrost is primarily driven by rising temperatures due to global warming, with abrupt thawing processes being increasingly observed. These abrupt thaws, triggered by extreme weather events like wildfires, release significant amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Similarly, wetlands, which cover vast areas of Canada, are identified as a major source of methane emissions due to microbial activities exacerbated by warmer temperatures.
The study calls for enhanced monitoring efforts and inclusion of wetlands in climate models to accurately account for these emissions. By shedding light on the complex interplay between climate feedback loops and greenhouse gas emissions, the research underscores the critical need for comprehensive strategies to address these challenges.